With Donald Trump back in the White House, Ukraine may need to brace for a chilly wind blowing from Washington. For President Zelensky and his administration, the stakes are suddenly higher. Trump has made it crystal clear that his view of supporting Ukraine is… let’s just say, a bit tepid. And as he prepares to step into the Oval Office once more, the script for the US-Ukraine-Russia trilogy could get a rewrite – one that’s less “action-packed” and more “let’s chat about a truce.”
Trump and the “Deal-Maker” Vibes with Kyiv
Trump, alongside his running mate JD Vance, has waved a skeptical finger at the extensive US support for Ukraine, pointing out the dollar signs with visible concern. After all, this isn’t exactly his first rodeo in diplomatic showdowns. For years, he’s had an on-again, off-again relationship with the idea of aiding Ukraine. Flashback to 2019: Trump’s name was synonymous with the word “impeachment” due to a certain “friendly chat” he had with Zelensky about investigating his political rivals in exchange for military aid. Apparently, old habits die hard, as Trump is now hinting at negotiating peace… or at least some version of it that wouldn’t need an Oscar-worthy battle scene.
Moscow’s Gains and Kyiv’s Growing Concerns
While Kyiv’s forces grapple with Russian advances, especially in the Donbas region, Russia seems to be building up quite the international guest list. Reports suggest North Korean troops are ready to step onto the Ukrainian battlefield, as Putin’s not exactly short on allies who are keen to join the show. And, with Trump’s victory, the support Kyiv has counted on might soon come with a ticking clock and conditions that look more like a contract termination than a renewal.
The Biden Legacy: Tens of Billions in Aid… For Now
If there’s one thing the Biden administration did, it’s pour cash and weapons into Ukraine. With the reins of US foreign aid slipping from his hands, Biden’s team is hustling to get every last bit of support across the pond before Trump’s second term begins. It’s a race against the clock, and Ukraine’s soldiers are watching closely, wondering if they’ll be left to fend off Russia solo.
Trump’s Love-Hate Relationship with Ukraine and the Art of “Making Deals”
Trump has frequently praised Putin’s “strength” and been, let’s say, a bit less charitable towards Zelensky. With claims that the war wouldn’t have happened under his watch, Trump insists he could end the war in a day – probably with a negotiation strategy he hasn’t exactly spelled out. But wait, he has offered a glimpse: “Ukraine should have given up a little bit.” Yes, you read that right. To him, the “worst deal” would be better than, well, war. Because, as Trump eloquently put it, “everybody would be living.”
“A Strong America” and the Fine Print of Diplomacy
After their September meeting, Zelensky diplomatically congratulated Trump, adding a dose of hope for “strong bipartisan support.” This subtle nod, however, doesn’t mean he’s totally convinced. Although he’s cautiously optimistic, Zelensky’s likely wondering how much of that “strong America” message will actually come with continued military and budget support. If Trump is crafting a deal, Kyiv wants it from “a position of strength,” not a position of “give up a bit and call it peace.”
NATO’s Plans and the “Trump-Proof” Strategy
To “Trump-proof” the pipeline, NATO and allies have come up with a strategy of their own, coordinating military aid and support in a way that doesn’t hinge on any one leader. That hefty $20 billion pledge from Biden toward a $50 billion G7 loan package for Ukraine was a clear shot at keeping resources flowing regardless of any leadership shake-ups. But come January, the world will be watching to see if Trump’s approach is the deal Kyiv needs… or the deal Kyiv never wanted.
In the meantime, as Trump prepares to take office, allies around the world, and especially Ukraine, may need to recalibrate their expectations – and fast.
